Mitt, Mama Grizzly and Huck-a-buck

I've long been a news junkie and hopelessly addicted to politics. I can't remember who said it, but there's an old saying along the lines of "History is past politics. Politics is future hisotry." As a history minor in college I always found it fascinating and loved writing lengthy papers after doing days of research.
As I've perused America's latest political climate I've noticed quite a few things. Die hard liberals are disappointed that President Barack Obama doesn't lean enough to the left. Those on the right seem to be of the opinion that he's either: a socialist, the anti-Christ, a born Kenyan citizen or one of those info-mercial pitchmen out to sell them something to oxy-clean their snuggies while it makes their smoothies. The GOP for the first two years ran under the auspice of the party of "No" voting in a huge block against EVERYTHING Obama put on the table INCLUDING ideas which they themselves had come up with (healthcare comes to mind) and convinced enough of the American people to give them control of The House of Representatives and a few governors seats.
The GOP now controls half of congress, and now the eyes of the American public rest squarely on the eyes of the men and women who inspired their ire. Before we know it the GOP presidential primaries will begin in earnest and there will be a lively field of candidates from whom to choose. Let's take a look at some of them and what their chances might be.

Newt Gingrich: Gingrich is a former history professor and former Speaker of The House of Representatives. He and a group of upstart Republicans took over the House in 1994 to undermine Bill Clinton and wrote the "Contract with America." They shut down the government, and when the economy improved had no real issue to run against Clinton in 96. Newt's chances? He's liked by some on the far right, but doesn't poll well with independent voters.

Michelle Bachman: Out spoken Minesota Representative and Tea party darling. Bachman is loved in her own district and by some on the far right, but if early polling is any indicator is behind by double digits among Republicans. Bachman's chances? Even if she were to get the nomination she's too polarizing a figure and doesn't poll well with independent voters.

Mitt Romney: Former Governor of Massatuchetts on paper is an ideal candidate. He's a moderate Republican which bodes well with independent voters. There are however a few problems that will possibly hurt him in the primaries: among them are the fact that the healthcare plan he passed as governor of Massatuchetts is almost IDENTICAL to the National Healthcare plan which he and many other Republicans villify on a daily basis and call "Obama Care" and that continues to bite him in the rear. Romney has been talking tough to get the right's attention, but in the process has been slowly alienating the moderates he'd need to win a general election.
Also there is another elephant in the room, (No pun intended) Romney is a Mormon. A good part of the GOP's base is the Christian Right. Many in the Christian right wouldn't vote for a Catholic or anyone else whose faith as they don't see as Christian enough. Their negative views of the church of later day Saints might hinder Romney in the vote rich south during the primaries. Will the evangellical crowd forsake a man of the cloth (who shall be mentioned later) to vote for a Northern moderate? Romney's chances? If he runs as a moderate he stands a good chance of winning a General Election; however, being a moderate won't get him through the primaries. He'll have to run right of center to get the blessing of the powers that be on the far right and if he does that he'll lose independent voters if he should get the nomination.

Mike Huckabee: I like former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (whom I lovingly call Huck-a-buck) and so do MANY in the Christian right. He'd do well in southern primaries and despite being an analyst for Fox News doesn't completely alienate moderates. Huck-a-buck's chances? Sadly not as good as many would like. The former Governor is also an ordained minister which while it would get him scores of votes among evangelical voters will lose him just as many votes among independents and anyone who might think a man of the cloth would attempt to govern via "devine inspiration". Translation the separation of church and state crowd won't vote a man of the cloth into office. Should Huckabee get the GOP's nomination he'd lose by double digits.

Sarah Palin: Sarah Palin aka "Mama Grizzly" is the darling of the GOP base and that SCARES many establishment GOP types like the Bush family who have not been shy about their disdane for the former governor of Alaska. Governor Palin's "folksy charm" act plays well in conservative strongholds and those who choose to ignore her do so at their peril. Those inclined to sling mud at the former governor during the primaries would be foolish as an endorsement from her might pack some serious weight. Palin's chances? Palin does well with evangelicals, BUT does NOT poll well among independent voters and is very close to both Huckabee and Romney in many polls taken thus far. Palin should do well in the primaries, but should she get the nomination she would be slaughtered by Obama in a general election. The fact that she served half a term as governor of Alaska (quitting midway through her first and only term)might not bode well. She is destined to galvanize the far left to show up at the polls and more than likely would be plagued by the scandals which dogged her during her term as Governor.

Assessment? At present the GOP seems deadlocked between Romney, Palin and Huckabee one of those three more than likely has the best shot at the nomination, but it's still too early to rule out a dark horse.